Q-Day Arrives Early — The Cryptography Runway Collapses — severe-but-plausible scenario — ITOL

Vector: Cyber · Severity: extreme

A credible announcement, or a leak, says RSA-2048 and elliptic-curve keys will fall to a quantum computer within two years, not after 2030. The post-quantum migration planned around federal deadlines must now finish in a fraction of the time. Data harvested today is already lost. The payment rails, the card networks' chip cryptography, the bank's hardware security modules, every secure web connection and long-lived e-signatures move on vendors' schedules, not the bank's.